England — modelled reality vs the NICE-implied opportunity
Find → Test → Treat
The real-world conversion funnel across all alliances
Testing rate vs NICE expectation
Monthly ESR1 tests against the ~355/month NICE-implied benchmark
Modelled elacestrant starts by Cancer Alliance
12-month modelled starts. Click any alliance to drill into its trusts. West Midlands (highlighted) leads the country and is the deck case study.
Find → Test → Treat
Conversion funnel for this alliance
Performance vs NICE-implied opportunity
Share of the NICE benchmark this alliance reached
Active patients & monthly starts
Active treatment-month equivalents (area) and modelled new starts (bars)
Stock growth
Active patients on treatment, opening → closing
Click any trust to see its detail. Sorted by modelled starts.
Tests, expected ESR1+ and modelled starts are site-specific. Conversion and performance-vs-NICE are not shown per trust: trust starts are the alliance's SCMD supply allocated by each site's ESR1 testing share, so those ratios are identical for every site in an alliance — they are reported at Cancer Alliance level above. Test counts include modelled estimates for suppressed small values, so single-site figures are approximate.
Actual elacestrant pharmacy supply (SCMD), attributed to the trust that dispensed it. This is a different lens from the testing sites above — it shows where the drug was physically supplied, often a regional hub dispensing for several sites.
Supply-based and recorded at the dispensing trust, so these figures do not reconcile to the modelled testing-site starts above and are not a conversion rate. “No local ESR1 testing” flags a trust that dispenses elacestrant but records no ESR1 tests of its own — a possible find/test-vs-treat gap.
Find → Test → Treat
Conversion funnel for this trust / site
Modelled starts by month
New elacestrant starts, Apr 2025 – Mar 2026